risk management
Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: Decoupling realists
The fire that shut down four continents March 19, 2021. A fire at the Renesas Electronics factory in Naka, Japan. Seventeen hours. Twenty-three machines destroyed on a line supplying microcontroller chips to 30 percent of the global auto industry.... The Open Question March 18: How do we reason about the future given AI? I find this topic extremely perplexing, and endlessly fascinating.
- What are we raising our kids to be ready for? What skills don't matter anymore that we used to hold sacred, and what do we need to emphasize?
- Will we have universities?
- Where to invest time/energy?
- Where to invest money? Will money even matter?
- Purpose and meaning, etc...
especially when I factor in stuff like Nate Soares talking about If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, Rob Miles and Jeffrey Ladish communicating the wild risks involved in AI acceleration, there's almost too much to contemplate at once, and I'd love y'all's help.
Some convos already on UpTrust that might be relevant:
- Blake on AI collaboration
- Tommy on TikTok brain with AI
- Renee on Older people adopting AI
- Leif on Digital Mystics
- Alex on AI & the Second Coming of Christ
- Dave on an AI Safety introduction he likes
#openquestion
I think some of this is talked about as Knightian uncertainty, based on a guy in the 1920s differentiating between uncertainty we can have reasonable guesses about (risk we can quantify) and uncertainty about what the possibilities even are that are available to us.... AMA with Nate Soares. Wednesday 2/4 at 10am CT
Author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies answers questions about why superhuman AI would kill us all.
I'm seeing in another comment you wrote, you said people can call their political representatives. What's really the best leverage point in the effort to mitigate AI x-risk? I have trouble believing it's politics, though a global movement and agreement sound nice.... AMA with Nate Soares. Wednesday 2/4 at 10am CT
Author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies answers questions about why superhuman AI would kill us all.
Contrary to the stark title, I bet you have some small probability mass on AI being built and not killing everyone because of a series of implausible contingencies or something.... AMA with Rob Miles on AI Safety
Wednesday, 2/4 at 1:00pm CT
AISafety.info founder has spent years telling the world about risk posed by strong AI.
AMA with Jeffrey Ladish
Wednesday 2/4 at 2:00 PM CT
Executive director of Palisade Research; studying AI loss of control risks.
Welcome to Risk and Reward
In this group, we discuss the process. The Core Thesis: The quality of a decision is mathematically separate from the result of that decision. You can make a terrible bet and win (Luck). You can make the perfect bet and lose (Variance).... The Math of a Good Transaction
Hey, Hi, Hello. New to the floor here. I’m TRG. In my world, we usually talk about "Edge" and "Variance" in terms of chips and cards. But looking around this place, I see the same math applies to how we talk to each other.... Only looking at roadblocks is self-defeating. I feel like friends including some here have been gesturing at this to me for years but I got
it
on a deeper level today in therapy.I was talking about how unhappy I am about my work lately.
Therapist suggested what would be my ideal work like instead? And so I envisioned it but then immediately started thinking about the roadblocks to getting there.
But only focusing on the roadblocks is focusing only on the negative and where we put our attention only grows. Rather, I could also include more of what’s drawing me and how great it’d be. Ideally some combo of both.
A distinction between want (etymology linked to lacking) vs desire (
await what the stars will bring
)Thinking about roadblocks can be really helpful. I’m a programmer, so I’m very attuned to ways systems can fail so that I can design them not to fail....